Article summary: Dairy Australia’s October 2025 Production Inputs Monitor highlighted a sharp jump in temporary water prices, easing hay markets, and a meaningful month-on-month drop in urea, alongside falling soil moisture. Here’s how to turn those signals into practical “if X, then Y” decisions for irrigation allocation, fertiliser timing, and spring/summer feed budgets, even if you farm outside Australia.
When input markets move quickly, spring and summer budgets can drift without you noticing. A small shift in water, feed, or fertiliser can change what “profitable pasture” looks like in the next 30 to 90 days.
Dairy Australia’s October 2025 Production Inputs Monitor is a useful snapshot because it combines the big levers most grazing businesses juggle: water, fodder and grain, fertiliser, and cull cow markets.
Below is a practical decision guide that keeps the logic globally relevant, while using Australia’s October 2025 numbers as a real-world example.
The October 2025 signals worth acting on
1) Water: price spikes and lower traded volumes
Temporary water prices rose to the highest levels in five years across Northern Victoria and the Murray Irrigation system, after easing in September.
In the report’s October 2025 averages:
-
Northern Victoria averaged $294/ML, up 150% on October 2024, with traded volume down 21% year-on-year.
-
Murray Irrigation System averaged $252/ML, up 127% on October 2024, with traded volume down 38% year-on-year.
Why it matters (globally): when the marginal cost of water jumps, “keeping everything green” can become the most expensive habit on the farm.
2) Feed: hay prices easing as buyer urgency drops
Dairy Australia noted cereal hay prices were down across all regions, with low buyer urgency and sufficient supply supported by harvest activity.
Month-on-month, the monitor showed cereal hay easing across Australia in October 2025, including:
-
Southern Australia: $386/t, -18% vs September
-
Northern Australia: $326/t, -7% vs September
-
Western Australia: $255/t, -6% vs September
Why it matters (globally): softening conserved feed prices can reduce the cost of insurance, but it can also tempt you into buying volume without a clear feeding plan.
3) Fertiliser: urea down, and the “why” is the point
Urea fell 14% from September to $603/t in October 2025 (Australian indicator pricing in the monitor).
The monitor linked the drop to surging Chinese exports between July and September, reportedly surpassing China’s total urea exports for all of 2024.
Why it matters (globally): urea pricing is often driven by global trade flows. A short-term dip can be real, but it can also reverse quickly.
4) Soil moisture: falling conditions change your response rates
Soil moisture levels declined across monitored regions, with the report noting all sites dropping by around half versus the previous month.
In the monitor’s relative soil moisture percentiles (October 2025):
-
Northern Australia: 35.5%, -53% month-on-month
-
Southern Australia: 16.5%, -46% month-on-month
-
Western Australia: 47.5%, -47% month-on-month
Why it matters (globally): falling soil moisture can quietly turn “good value nitrogen” into “expensive leaf” if plants cannot respond.
5) Cull cows: a quieter lever, but still part of the budget
Cull cow volumes through saleyards fell 27% from September, with average prices down 3% month-on-month in October.
Year-to-date, average cull cow prices in the monitor were up 35% versus the same period the prior season.
Why it matters (globally): cull markets affect cashflow timing, and can be a pressure-release valve when feed and water tighten.
The “If X, then Y” decision guide
If water is tight or expensive, then protect your best pasture first
When temporary water prices spike, the goal is not “save water”. The goal is buy the most pasture and animal performance per unit of water.
Do this:
-
Rank paddocks by expected response (soil, pasture base, fertility, history). Put water where the response is reliably higher.
-
Tighten irrigation triggers: move from calendar watering to trigger-based decisions (soil moisture, ET, pasture stress signals).
-
Protect perennial base: prioritise paddocks that preserve long-term production (and avoid the multi-month cost of re-establishment).
-
Avoid “insurance irrigations” on low-response paddocks, especially if you are already supplementing.
-
Model the opportunity cost: at high $/ML, ask “What else could this money buy that fills the same feed gap?”
Australian example: when Northern Victoria averaged $294/ML and volumes traded fell year-on-year, that is the exact scenario where response-based allocation matters most.
If hay is easing, then use it to reduce risk, not to blur your plan
Lower hay prices can be helpful, but only if you know what job the hay is doing.
Do this:
-
Buy for a defined purpose (summer pinch point, drought buffer, transition feed, protecting residuals).
-
Focus on cost per unit of energy/protein, not $/tonne. Cheap hay that forces you into higher grain later is not cheap.
-
Lock in a base, then stay flexible: cover the minimum “sleep at night” volume, then review monthly.
-
Match conserved feed to grazing targets: use supplements to protect residuals and rotation length, not replace grazing discipline.
Australian example: Dairy Australia reported softened hay markets with low buyer urgency and sufficient supply in October 2025.
If urea dips, then revisit timing and expected pasture response (not just “apply more”)
A fertiliser price dip is only valuable if the paddock can convert nitrogen into pasture efficiently.
Do this:
-
Re-check the response window: soil moisture, soil temperature, and growth stage matter more than the invoice price.
-
Split applications to reduce loss risk and match growth demand.
-
Target paddocks where extra feed is actually needed (your feed wedge and demand curve should tell you this).
-
Check the limiting factor: if moisture is falling, nitrogen can become the wrong lever.
Australian example: urea was down 14% month-on-month to $603/t, with the monitor attributing the move to increased Chinese exports.
At the same time, relative soil moisture indicators fell sharply, which is exactly when you should double-check response assumptions.
If soil moisture is falling, then prioritise decisions that preserve pasture utilisation
Drying profiles change everything: growth rate, grazing interval, and how much supplement you need to hold residuals.
Do this:
-
Shift from “feed budget as a spreadsheet” to “feed budget as triggers”:
-
If growth rate drops below your herd demand for X days, then pull a lever (rotation length, area allocation, supplement).
-
-
Protect residuals: once you start grazing too hard in drying conditions, recovery gets slower and the feed gap grows.
-
Avoid chasing a feed gap with the wrong lever: water, nitrogen, and bought-in feed each have different lag times.
Australian example: the monitor flagged broad soil moisture declines across regions in October 2025.
If cull cow markets are firm, then use them as a pressure release valve (selectively)
Culling is not an “input cost” in the same way, but it changes your feed demand immediately.
Do this:
-
Use culling to protect whole-farm performance when feed or water costs spike.
-
Be deliberate: identify low performers early, and avoid letting the season force rushed decisions later.
-
Tie culling decisions to your feed wedge and summer risk: fewer mouths can stabilise rotation length and residuals.
Australian example: October cull volumes fell month-on-month and prices eased slightly, while year-to-date prices were notably higher than the prior season.
A simple spring/summer budgeting template (works anywhere)
Use this as a quick monthly check-in:
-
Water
-
What is my marginal $/ML (or pumping cost) right now?
-
Which paddocks return the most pasture per unit of water?
-
What is my trigger to stop watering a paddock?
-
-
Feed
-
What is my “minimum cover” conserved feed position for the next 60–90 days?
-
What is my substitution plan (how will supplement change grazing pressure and rotation)?
-
-
Fertiliser
-
If I apply nitrogen next week, what conditions must be true for a good response?
-
Which paddocks will convert N into useful feed fastest?
-
-
Pasture
-
Are growth rates trending up, flat, or down?
-
Are residuals holding, or slipping?
-
How Pasture.io helps you act on these signals
Markets are noisy. Your farm data is not. The fastest way to make better input decisions is to link them to what is happening in your paddocks.
Use Pasture.io to:
-
track growth rates and rotation length as moisture conditions shift,
-
see whether paddocks respond after irrigation or nitrogen,
-
keep residuals and pre-grazing targets visible (so supplements protect utilisation, not replace it),
-
scenario-plan spring and summer feed gaps before they become emergencies.
- The Dedicated Team of Pasture.io, 2025-10-14